Spain: Europe's Climate Change Observatory

During the 1960s the southern Spanish region of Almería made the very most of its desert climate.  It became a popular location for films like Cleopatra, Lawrence of Arabia, and The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, and it continues to do so today.  However, in recent years, climate change and intensive farming methods are threatening the south of Spain with vast areas suffering from increased desertification.  And this is just one of the many ecological challenges that the country faces.  We might say that in a way, Spain serves as Europe´s climate change observatory.

The 5th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2015) confirmed that Spain will see a general increase in temperatures and a reduction in precipitation.  Maximum temperatures are expected to rise by between 5 and 8 oC over the coming century.  Heat waves will become more frequent and more pronounced and this will have a negative impact in many sectors, not just in agriculture and forestry, but also in the tourist industry.

Agriculture and Forestry

Spain is the third biggest wine producer globally, providing 12% of the world´s wine.  Yet as most people are intuitively aware, grapes are one of the most vulnerable crops to climate variations.  The increase in temperatures will have severe consequences for wine production in  some parts of Spain with one region (Córdoba) predicted to see up to a 60% reduction in yield. 

Global warming will also impact on forestry.  Climate change does not cause forest fires; more than 90% are directly or indirectly caused by humans.  However, climate change does have an impact on their intensity and the challenge of extinguishing them, as evidenced by the recent fires in Canada.  It also has an impact on the ability of the land to recover afterwards.

Tourism

Spain´s tourism industry represents 14% of the country´s GDP.  Much of this is due to its enviable climate.  Yet the IPCC predict that as we move towards the second half of the 21st Century tourism will begin to decrease in southern Europe due to uncomfortably high temperatures in the summer.  Some of these tourists will choose to visit in the Spring and Autumn instead but many others will choose the now warmer locations in Northern Europe. 

Yet the most dramatic effects of climate change on the tourism industry may well result from rising sea levels.  The artists impressions of the impact that this might have on coastal areas, commissioned by Greenpeace Spain, is shown overleaf.  It may be an exaggeration but the dependence of Spain on its tourism of “Costas” make this no idle threat.  Recent studies indicate that a sea level rise of one centimetre consumes around one metre of beach.

Migration

One final aspect of the probable impact of climate change on Spain is climate-related migration.  As some regions in southern Spain become increasingly inhospitable many people will relocate northwards or leave the country altogether for more temperate climes.

The depopulation of a vast swath of northern and central Spain has been a phenomenon of Spanish life for many decades.  This has been driven by mostly economic factors with the population moving to the larger cities leaving many towns completely abandoned.  Each of the labels on the map corresponds to an abandoned Spanish town.

As suggested above, climate change will only exacerbate the problem of depopulation, and more seriously, will accelerate  desertification of the land.

The Evangelical Response

Spanish evangelicals have only recently woken up to ecological concerns.  The 2012 book by Wickham and Wickham, Ecología y Cambio Climatico, was perhaps the first attempt to provide a theological and informational treatment of this subject for a general readership.  The Spanish Lausanne Committee have established a working group to promote ecological action and reflection but, as indicated above, this is not a day too soon. 

In Isaiah 44:3 we read of God´s promise to his servant, Israel: “For I will pour out water on the thirsty land and streams on the dry ground; I will pour out My Spirit on your offspring and My blessing on your descendants”  May God´s servants in Spain today be inspired by His Spirit to bless that country not only with the words of the gospel but also a care for His creation that will bring much needed water to a thirsty land.

Jim Memory

Sources:

IPCC, 2014. Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/

Greenpeace, 2014,  España: hacia un clima extremo, http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/Global/espana/2014/Report/artico/artico%202014%20web.pdf

Buck, A Spanish exodus to the cities leaves a desert in its wake, FT, 12th Dec 2014, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/09fde45a-8053-11e4-9907-00144feabdc0.html#slide0